Sweden's parliamentary parties will not abandon their fixed positions until they face the prospect of a snap election, a political scientist has told Göteborgs-Posten. Jonas Hinnfors, professor emeritus of political science, made the assessment after Speaker Andreas Norlén said he would put Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist forward for a prime ministerial vote. The Riksdag is due to test her candidacy on Tuesday.
Hinnfors said the parties have reacted to the speaker's move with irritation and surprise, but argued that the key point is that a vote will now take place at all. According to Göteborgs-Posten, he believes the mere threat of an extra election is probably what will finally set the process of forming a government in motion.
Why it matters
Sweden has been here before. The 2018 government formation took 134 days, and Norlén has said plainly that he wants to avoid a repeat of that drawn-out episode. His new approach — that a sounding-out process should end in a parliamentary vote — is meant to keep things moving.
Hinnfors does not think the speaker is forcing the pace. Given all the deadlocks and red lines, he told the newspaper, the process will not resolve itself; everyone is waiting for someone else to move first. Uncertainty about what an extra election might produce, he said, is what makes parties start revising their red lines when they reach the brink.
Votes lined up, with a possible exception
Ringqvist's centrist alternative is widely expected to be voted down on Tuesday. After that, the task of forming a government is expected to pass to Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson.
His assignment is also meant to be followed by a vote, though Göteborgs-Posten reports that this is not certain if Kristersson returns and says he has failed. Hinnfors suggested that if the speaker sees movement among the red-green parties, he could extend the sounding-out period and hand the task to Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson instead.
The professor expects the process to gather real momentum around the third or fourth vote. He told the newspaper it could run into December, but that it probably will not take much longer than that.
Where the numbers point
In Hinnfors's view, the most likely outcome is that the red-green bloc, with its 176 seats, eventually unites behind Andersson. His guess is that the Centre Party will have to drop its red line against the Left Party joining a government, while the Left may have to give ground on key issues and accept centrist policy.
If that proves impossible, he said, an extra election may be the result — and that prospect is closer this time than it was in 2018.
The immediate thing to watch is Tuesday's vote on Ringqvist, and then whether Kristersson's assignment is put to the chamber or returned as a failure.